July Sales Down but Inventory is Up, Sellers Get Their Asking Price
July marked the first month-over-month decline in home sales since April, signaling that perhaps the peak of summer buying is beginning to taper. Growth in the inventory of homes for sale inched up alongside modest increases in interest rates despite strong consumer demand.
July home sales declined 14.7% from June and 16.1% compared to a year ago. The decline was tied to a 9.0% drop in new listings month over month and represented 26.7% fewer new listings year over year across the 50 metro areas surveyed. July inventory was up 3.1% from June, even though it still lagged 20.8% from July 2022. Tight inventory amid consistent demand continued to prop up the median sales price of $425,000. This is a marginal decline of less than 1% compared to June, while registering a 1.2% upswing in comparison to July 2022.
With the average close-to-list price ratio in July at 100%, sellers were able to get their asking price from buyers. That was the average close-to-list ratio in June as well but was a decline from the 101% ratio recorded a year ago.
“The market is playing out like we expected it to, it’s bumpy,” says Nick Bailey, President and CEO of RE/MAX LLC. “The inventory situation is unique — we are seeing it differ across the country depending on what area, but demand for housing is still strong. As rates stabilize, consumers’ confidence should strengthen, helping boost market activity.”
Real estate agent Jeffrey Decatur of RE/MAX Capital in Latham, NY says it’s important to remember that real estate is hyper local. “The market continues to keep us on our toes. Inventory levels still pose a challenge in some areas while others are shifting and appreciating. Buyers are adjusting, too, and in some cases expanding search criteria or commute times to find more options. Working with an experienced professional who understands the nuances of the local market is the best way to navigate the ever-changing market.”
Other notable metrics:
- Months’ supply of inventory in July was 1.5, up from June’s 1.3 but below the 1.6 months recorded a year ago.
- Homes sold in July were on the market for an average of 30 days, which was 1 day longer than in June and 6 days longer than July of last year.
Highlights and local market metrics for July include:
Of the 50 metro areas surveyed in July 2023, the number of newly listed homes is down 9.0% compared to June 2023, and down 26.7% compared to July 2022. The markets with the biggest decrease in year-over-year new listings percentage were Phoenix, AZ at -59.3%, Las Vegas, NV at -45.8% and Providence, RI at -37.4%. Only one market had an increase in year-over-year new listings percentage, Kansas City, MO at +1.8%.
Of the 50 metro areas surveyed in July 2023, the overall number of home sales is down 14.7% compared to June 2023, and down 16.1% compared to July 2022. The markets with the biggest decrease in year-over-year sales percentage were Dover, DE at -34.9%, Providence, RI at -27.3%, and New York, NY at -24.4%. Only two markets had an increase in year-over-year sales percentage, Cincinnati, OH at +16.1% and Coeur d’Alene, ID at +12.7%.
Median Sales Price – Median of 50 Metro Area Prices
In July 2023, the median of all 50 metro area sales prices was $425,000, down 0.7% compared to June 2023, and up 1.2% from July 2022. The markets with the biggest year-over-year decrease in median sales price were Phoenix, AZ at -4.4%, San Antonio, TX at -3.7%, and Las Vegas, NV at -3.4%. The markets with the biggest year-over-year increase in median sales price were Trenton, NJ at +14.1%, Bozeman, MT at +9.2%, and Milwaukee, WI at +9.0%.
Close-To-List Price Ratio – Average of 50 Metro Area Prices
In July 2023, the average close-to-list price ratio of all 50 metro areas in the report was 100%, flat compared to June 2023, and down from 101% compared to July 2022. The close-to-list price ratio is calculated by the average value of the sales price divided by the list price for each transaction. When the number is above 100%, the home closed for more than the list price. If it’s less than 100%, the home sold for less than the list price. The metro areas with the lowest close-to-list price ratios were a tie between Bozeman, MT and New Orleans, LA at 97%. The highest close-to-list price ratios were a tie between Hartford, CT and Trenton, NJ at 105%.
Days on Market – Average of 50 Metro Areas
The average days on market for homes sold in July 2023 was 30, up 1 day compared to the average in June 2023, and up 6 days from the average in July 2022. The metro areas with the lowest days on market were a tie between Baltimore, MD and Washington, DC at 11, followed by another tie between Dover, DE and Trenton, NJ at 12. The highest days on market averages were in Fayetteville, AR at 68, Coeur d’Alene, ID at 59, and San Antonio, TX at 54. Days on market is the number of days between when a home is first listed in an MLS and a sales contract is signed.
Months’ Supply of Inventory – Average of 50 Metro Areas
The number of homes for sale in July 2023 was up 3.1% from June 2023 and down 20.8% from July 2022. Based on the rate of home sales in July 2023, the months’ supply of inventory was 1.5, up from 1.3 in June 2023, and decreased compared to 1.6 in July 2022. In July 2023, the markets with the lowest months’ supply of inventory were a four-way tie between Charlotte, NC, Manchester, NH, Seattle, WA, and Trenton, NJ at 0.7. The markets with the highest months’ supply of inventory were San Antonio, TX at 3.5, Bozeman, MT at 3.4, and New Orleans, LA at 3.1.
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